F9 1015 · SJU → PHL

departs 7:11 AM AT · arrives 11:13 AM ET

Your aircraft is N619FR (A21N), coming in as F9 3980 from TPA: landed 11:46 PM AT.

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from SJU are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1015 · SJU → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?