Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1015 · SJU → PHL
departs 6:11 AM AT · arrives 10:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.