F9 1192 · SFO → PHX

took off 2:32 PM PT · landed 4:01 PM MT (scheduled 1:32 PM PT → 3:51 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1192 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?