F9 1418 · IAH → MCO

departs 12:31 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1418 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?