F9 1456 · DFW → MSP

took off 5:47 AM CT · expected to land 7:33 AM CT (scheduled 5:29 AM CT → 8:05 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1456 · DFW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?