Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
F9 2261 · DEN → ELP
departs 4:22 PM MT · arrives 6:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 33%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.