Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 2280 · CLE → MCO
departs 9:47 PM ET · arrives 12:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 36%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.