Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 2401 · TPA → DFW
departs 9:48 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 36%
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.