Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 3494 · LAS → IAD
departs 10:39 PM PT · arrives 6:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 37%
Fri 10/30 41%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 10,314 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.