Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 3999 · DFW → SFO
departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 10:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 44%
Fri 10/30 52%
Sat 10/31 56%
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2 49%
Wed 11/4 53%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.