F9 4004 · MCO → BWI

departs 11:52 AM ET · arrives 2:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4004 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?