Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4004 · MCO → BWI
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.