Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 4106 · IAH → ATL
departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 12:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 41%
Fri 10/30 41%
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 48%
Wed 11/4 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.