Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4158 LANDED 8:24 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27

F9 4158 · SFO → LAS

took off 7:15 PM PT · landed 8:24 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4158 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time