Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 4418 · ELP → DEN
departs 7:04 PM MT · arrives 9:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 31%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 27%
Wed 11/4 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from ELP are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.