Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4593 LANDED 8:27 PM PT, ~11 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, October 27

F9 4593 · LAX → SFO

took off 7:27 PM PT · landed 8:27 PM PT (scheduled 7:07 PM PT → 8:45 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4593 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?