G4 2866 · SFB → BMI

took off 11:41 AM ET · landed 12:52 PM CT (scheduled 9:00 AM ET → 10:34 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BMI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9am departures from SFB are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BMI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2866 · SFB → BMI

Odds over time

How late did it get to BMI?