Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 338
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
IB 338 · MIA → MAD
departs 10:06 PM ET · arrives 11:39 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.64 in
MAD (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.