IB 382 · SJU → MAD

departs 6:10 PM AT · arrives 7:29 AM CET

Your aircraft is ECOLE (A21N).

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MAD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MAD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

IB 382 · SJU → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?