JL 785 · HNL → NRT

took off 1:05 PM HT · expected to land 4:25 PM JST (scheduled 12:43 PM HT → 4:18 PM JST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NRT?

LIVE

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ NRT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.66 in

NRT (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 785 · HNL → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?