Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 12
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
JX 12 · TPE → SFO
departs 12:04 AM CST · arrives 8:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.