Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 12
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
JX 12 · TPE → SFO
departs 12:08 AM CST · arrives 8:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.