LH 457 · LAX → FRA

took off 4:17 PM PT · expected to land 10:00 AM CET (scheduled 4:17 PM PT → 10:40 AM CET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FRA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FRA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 457 · LAX → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?