Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
LH 489 · SEA → MUC
departs 7:11 PM PT · arrives 1:19 PM CET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 12%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
MUC (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.