Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 3860 · LBB → DFW
departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 9:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 47%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.