MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

departs 10:24 AM CT · arrives 1:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?