Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4074 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 4:23 PM ET (17 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

MQ 4074 · DCA → BUF

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4074 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?