Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4197
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 4197 · DFW → SAV
departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 6:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into SAV at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.