Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 4279 · DFW → MAF
departs 6:24 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.