MQ 4321 · RDU → MIA

took off 6:57 PM ET · landed 8:44 PM ET (scheduled 6:49 PM ET → 9:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,314 ft Visibility8.85714 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4321 · RDU → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?