MQ 4325 · MIA → MAR

departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM -04

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MAR more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAR

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

MAR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4325 · MIA → MAR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAR?