MX 419 · MCO → ORF

departs 11:11 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 419 · MCO → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?