Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MX 419 · MCO → ORF
departs 11:01 AM ET · arrives 1:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.