OH 5404 · RDU → DCA

took off 6:30 PM ET · landed 7:07 PM ET (scheduled 6:16 PM ET → 7:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,314 ft Visibility8.85714 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5404 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?