Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

OH 5471 · DFW → CHA

departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5471 · DFW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?