Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
OO 4612 · MSP → SBN
departs 1:07 PM CT · arrives 3:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.33 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.