OO 4655 · ACV → SFO

departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at ACV that day

Weather at each end

ACV (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4655 · ACV → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?