Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4655
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4655 · ACV → SFO
departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 54%
Mon 11/2 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ACV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from ACV are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ACV that day
Weather at each end
ACV (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.