Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 4786 · IAH → MSY
departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 11:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.