Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
OO 5951 · SFO → MSP
departs 4:44 PM PT · arrives 10:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.