Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2132
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2132 · EWR → YTZ
departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.