Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2393 · YTZ → MDW
departs 1:34 PM EDT · arrives 2:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.