Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
PD 2393 · YTZ → MDW
departs 1:46 PM EDT · arrives 2:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.