Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2394 · MDW → YTZ
departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.