Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
PD 2394 · MDW → YTZ
departs 3:49 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.