Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 580 · MCO → YYZ
departs 1:34 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.