Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
PD 580 · MCO → YYZ
departs 1:49 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.