QK 822 · DCA → YUL

departs 11:05 AM ET · arrives 12:58 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 822 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?