QX 2490 · PDX → PAE

took off 11:50 AM PT · landed 12:23 PM PT (scheduled 11:00 AM PT → 12:04 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PAE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ PAE usually runs smoothly

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.28 in

PAE (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2490 · PDX → PAE

Odds over time

How late did it get to PAE?