Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2490 · PDX → PAE
departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 11:58 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from PDX are often late
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
PAE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.